人口老龄化对货币政策有效性的影响研究
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Research on Impact of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
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    摘要:

    在理论分析基础上,选取中国31个省份(因数据缺失,未包含港、澳、台地区)的面板数据研究人口老龄化对货币政策有效性的影响。研究结果显示,人口老龄化显著削弱了货币政策的有效性;从区域异质性来看,人口老龄化越严重的地区,人口老龄化对货币政策的抑制作用越强;进一步研究发现人口老龄化通过削弱货币政策的信贷渠道影响货币政策有效性。最后提出应充分考虑人口年龄因素,审慎评估货币政策中介目标和预测效果等的相关政策建议。

    Abstract:

    Based on theoretical analysis, this paper selects panel data from 31 provinces (due to the lack of data, the statistical data mentioned here do not include the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province)in China to study the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy. The results show that the aging of the population significantly weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy. From the perspective of regional heterogeneity, the more severe the population aging, the stronger the inhibitory effect of population aging on monetary policy. Further research finds that population aging affects the effectiveness of monetary policy by weakening the credit channels of monetary policy. Finally, it is proposed that the age factor of the population should be fully considered, and the relevant policy suggestions should be carefully evaluated such as the intermediary target and the prediction effect of monetary policy.

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董崇莹.人口老龄化对货币政策有效性的影响研究[J].科技与产业,2025,25(12):393-400

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-30
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