Using the emission factor method, the carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province as a whole, as well as those of southern, central, and northern Jiangsu from 2001 to 2019 were calculated. The variation coefficient, Gini coefficient, and Theil index were employed to measure the disparities in carbon emissions among the three major regions of Jiangsu. Based on the STIRPAT model and using ridge regression, the driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province and its subregions were explored. Furthermore, scenario analysis was applied to predict the carbon emissions and peak carbon year of Jiangsu province for the period 2020–2050. The results show that significant disparities in carbon emissions exist among the three regions of Jiangsu province during the study period, with overall differences fluctuating and increasing over time; Population size, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, industrial structure, and energy intensity all significantly impact carbon emissions in Jiangsu and its subregions. Population size is identified as the primary driver of carbon emissions growth in Jiangsu province and southern Jiangsu, while the urbanization rate is the main driver in central and northern Jiangsu; Under scenarios of economic slowdown and industrial upgrading, Jiangsu province is projected to reach its carbon emissions peak as early as 2030.