航空危险品运输安全监管演化博弈分析
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Analysis of the Evolutionary Game of Air Dangerous Goods Transportation Safety Regulation
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    摘要:

    为解决航空危险品运输安全问题,在社会责任视角下,构建主体为政府、航空公司和托运人的三方演化博弈模型,分析不同条件下的策略选择。运用MATLAB对重要参数进行数值仿真,探究处罚金、政府积极监管成本、积极监管成功率、航空公司的违规收益和托运人的管理成本的敏感性变化对系统演化的影响。结果表明,政府的处罚金和积极监管的成功率对托运人和航空公司是正向激励,政府应增加处罚金,才能有效解决航空危险品运输安全问题。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve the safety problem of aviation dangerous goods transportation, under the perspective of social responsibility, a three-party evolutionary game model with the subjects being the government, airlines and shippers was constructed, and the strategy choices under different conditions were analyzed. MATLAB was used to numerically simulate the important parameters to explore the effects of the sensitivity changes of the penalty, the government's active regulation cost, the success rate of active regulation, the airline's violation revenue and the shipper's management cost on the evolution of the system. The results show that the government's penalty and the success rate of active regulation are positive incentives for shippers and airlines, and the government should increase the penalty in order to effectively solve the safety problem of air dangerous goods transportation.

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文军,马思源,孙一,樊志翔,陈治明.航空危险品运输安全监管演化博弈分析[J].科技与产业,2025,25(03):57-64

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-25
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