基于改进可拓理论-有效降雨耦合模型的库岸滑坡稳定性动态评价
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Dynamic Evaluation of Reservoir Bank Landslide Stability Based on Improved Extension Theory and Effective Rainfall Coupling Model
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    摘要:

    库区滑坡稳定性问题是水利水电工程中研究的关键问题之一,影响滑坡稳定性的指标具有差异性、时变性,传统方法难以实现稳定性的动态评价。通过改进可拓理论,建立多层次、多变量的滑坡稳定性动态评价模型,引入有效降雨模型替代日降雨量模型,采用差异系数替代传统CRITIC法标准差,建立基于关联函数矩阵的动态权重计算方法。通过对羊曲水电站库区内某滑坡体地表宏观变形、实时监测数据分析,证明了有效降雨模型的适用性,定义了有效降雨作用期,最终将改进可拓理论与有效降雨模型联用对该滑坡体进行稳定性动态评价,研究结果与监测数据表明规律具有较好的一致性,证明提出的方法具有可靠性及准确性。此外,构建的模型可以快速分析现场实时数据,实现随时间、环境变化的滑坡稳定性状态的动态评价,为滑坡体防治工作提供了一种客观准确的分析方法。

    Abstract:

    Landslide stability in reservoir area is one of the key problems studied in water conservancy and hydropower engineering. The indicators affecting landslide stability are different and time-varying, and it is difficult to achieve dynamic evaluation of stability by traditional methods. By improving the extension theory, a multi-level and multi-variable dynamic assessment model of landslide stability was established. In the proposed method, the effective rainfall model was introduced to replace the daily rainfall model, the difference coefficient was used to replace the standard deviation of the traditional CRITIC method, and the dynamic weight calculation method based on the correlation function matrix was established. Through analyzing sheep song hydropower station reservoir area within a certain landslide surface macroscopic deformation, real-time monitoring data analysis, the applicability of effective rainfall model was proven, the effective rainfall period was defined, and the extension theory and effective rainfall model coupled dynamic evaluation on the stability of this landslide were eventually improved.The results and monitoring data reflect regularity has good consistency. The reliability and accuracy of the method proposed in this study are proved. In addition, the proposed model can quickly analyze the scene real-time data, implement change with time, environment of dynamic evaluation of landslide stability state for landslide prevention, and control work to provide a kind of objective and accurate analysis method.

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段军邦,吕耀成,李建波,张国盛,韦建溪.基于改进可拓理论-有效降雨耦合模型的库岸滑坡稳定性动态评价[J].科技与产业,2023,23(22):253-261

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-21
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