基于多元回归对梨树县农业总产值影响因素的实证分析
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Empirical analysis of influencing factors of total agricultural output value in Lishu County based on multiple regression
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    摘要:

    为探究梨树县农业发展的现状和问题,对其农业总产值进行分析,文章采用了多元线性回归的实证研究方法,利用软件SPSS 22.0,从吉林省统计局和中国国家统计局的数据库中选取了2003-2020年梨树县农业总产值以及相关影响因素的数据,以农业总产值为因变量,以乡村人口、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量(实物量)和市、县总播种面积为自变量,对以上影响因素进行计量分析.结果表明:农业机械总动力每增加1万千瓦,农业总产值就会平均减少1977.950万元;有效灌溉面积每增加1千公顷,农业总产值就会平均增加7454.066万元;市、县总播种面积每增加1公顷,农业总产值就会平均增加5.311万元。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the current situation and problems of agricultural development in Lishu County and analyze its total agricultural output value, this paper adopts the empirical research method of multiple linear regression and uses the software SPSS 22.0 to select the data of total agricultural output value of Lishu County and related influencing factors from the databases of Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics and National Bureau of Statistics of China during 2003-2020. Taking total agricultural output value as dependent variable and rural population, total power of agricultural machinery, effective irrigation area, fertilizer application amount (material amount) and total sown area of cities and counties as independent variables, the above influencing factors were analyzed quantitatively. The results showed that when the total power of agricultural machinery increased by 10,000 kW, the total agricultural output value decreased by 19,779.5 million yuan on average. Every increase of 1000 hectares of effective irrigated area will increase the total agricultural output value by 74.54066 million yuan on average. Every increase of 1 hectare in the total sown area of cities and counties will increase the total agricultural output value by 53,311 yuan on average.

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方燕玲.基于多元回归对梨树县农业总产值影响因素的实证分析[J].科技与产业,2023,23(16):195-199

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-25