Based on the LMDI model, China's economic population development and the carbon emission data of lime industry from 2001 to 2012 are taken as samples, and the influencing factors of carbon emission of lime industry are decomposed and studied from five aspects. The results show that the technological development effect, economic growth effect and population size effect are the main factors that affect the carbon emission of lime industry, and their influencing trends are different. Based on GM(1,1) model, the future carbon emissions of China's lime industry are predicted, and the emissions are predicted to reach 448 million tons in 2030. Based on the analysis of influencing factors and the prediction of carbon emission trend, some suggestions are put forward for the low-carbon development of China's lime industry from the aspects of technology innovation and policy making.