According to STIRPAT model, inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019 is used to do empirical analysis on the relationship between social dependency pressure and carbon emission. Social dependency pressure is subdivided into old-age dependency pressure and juvenile dependency pressure. It is found that the relationship between social dependency pressure and carbon emission is not significant.The relationship between old-age dependency pressure and carbon emission is "U" shaped; the relationship between child dependency pressure and carbon emission is inverted "U". Finally, the 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government are divided into four echelons by the level of total social dependency pressure and the level of economic development, and the relationship between old-age dependency pressure, child dependency pressure and carbon emission and the reasons for the different regression results are discussed in each of the four echelons.