农业科技资源错配测度及时空演变分析
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Analysis of Agricultural Science and Technology Resource Mismatch Measurement and Space-time Evolution
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    基于资源错配理论构建资源错配测算模型,对农业科技资源错配指数进行测算,并利用ArcGIS软件、Markov链分析法对错配进行时空演变分析。研究发现:①2005—2019年,各省份及三大区域人力资源错配时空演变呈现过剩与不足的分化,而整体是过剩错配占主导并逐渐加重的演变格局;财力资源错配整体处于配置不足与过剩相当且相对稳定的演化特征。②Markov链分析发现,两种资源具有保持原错配等级状态稳定性的时空演化趋势,其中人力错配稳定性强于财力错配,而且中度、重度错配的稳定性很强。区域间及区域内各省份间普遍存在农业科技资源错配,错配演化各异,且很难出现显著性的改善。为此,建议采取多种措施,加快跨区域、跨省间农业科技人力资源的自由流动,优化农业科技财力资源的配置,以缓解区域间及区域内各省份间农业科技资源错配,从而提高农业科技产出。

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    Based on the resource mismatch theory, a mismatch measurement model is constructed to measure the mismatch index of agricultural science and technology resources, and ArcGIS software and Markov chain analysis method are used to analyze the space-time evolution of the mismatch. It is found that:① From 2005 to 2019, the space-time evolution of human resource mismatch in each province and the three major regions showed a divergence between excess and deficit, while the overall evolutionary pattern is that excess mismatch dominates and gradually worsens; the financial resource mismatch as a whole is in an evolutionary feature where under-allocation and excess are comparable and relatively stable.② Markov chain analysis found that both re?sources had a tendency to evolve in space-time in a way that maintains the stability of the original mismatch hierarchy state, where the stability of human mismatch is stronger than that of financial resources, and the stability of moderate and severe mismatch is very strong. There is a widespread mismatch of agricultural science and technology resources between regions and between provinces within regions, and the evolution of the mismatch is varies, and it is difficult to show significant improvement. To this end, it is suggested to multi-measures to accelerate the free flow of human resources in agricultural science and technology across regions and provinces and optimize the allocation of financial resources in agricultural science and technology,in order to alleviate the mismatch of agricultural science and technology resources between regions and provinces within regions, and thus improve agricultural science and technology output.

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杨传喜,刘文博.农业科技资源错配测度及时空演变分析[J].科技与产业,2023,23(06):7-15

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-26
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