房产信贷约束下中国房价波动与非住房消费的门槛效应分析
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Analysis of the Threshold Effect of House Price Volatility and Non-housing Consumption in China under Housing Credit Constraints
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    摘要:

    针对城镇居民非住房消费不足与高房价并存的典型现象,运用面板门槛模型对31个省区市2005—2019年的数据进行研究,探讨房价波动对非住房消费的影响并揭示空间差异。结果表明:房价波动对家庭非住房消费既有挤出效应也有财富效应,其中随着房产信贷约束的放松,挤出效应减弱,而财富效应增强;东部、中部、西部和东北部之间的门槛效应是异质的;各地区住房信贷约束水平存在明显差异,对房价与非住房消费之间的异质性关联起着至关重要的作用;房价波动和房产信贷约束并不是导致低消费的综合因素,无法负担的房价以及家庭抚养负担的增加是低消费的综合因素。因此,稳定房价仍是当务之急,房产信贷政策应与房地产市场的发展相适应,以促进消费。

    Abstract:

    To address the typical phenomenon of urban residents' non-housing consumption shortage coexisting with high house prices, a panel threshold model is applied to study data from 31 provinces from 2005 to 2019 to explore the impact of house price fluctuations on non-housing consumption and reveal spatial differences. The results show that house price fluctuations have both crowding-out and wealth effects on household non-housing consumption, with the crowding-out effect weakening and the wealth effect increasing with the relaxation of property credit constraints. The threshold effect is heterogeneous among East, Central, West and Northeast. There are significant differences in the level of housing credit constraints across regions, which play a crucial role in the heterogeneous association between house prices and non-housing consumption. House price volatility and housing credit constraints are not a combination of factors that lead to low consumption; unaffordable house prices and increased household support burden are a combination of factors that lead to low consumption. It is suggested that stabilizing house prices remains an imperative and that property credit policies should be aligned with the development of the real estate market to promote consumption.

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钱娇.房产信贷约束下中国房价波动与非住房消费的门槛效应分析[J].科技与产业,2023,23(05):125-133

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-20
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