房地产业与银行业间的风险溢出效应研究——基于DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型
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Research on the Risk Spillover Between Real Estate and Banking:Based on DCC-GARCH-CoVaR model
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    摘要:

    通过将2016年1月4日至2021年3月19日房地产业板块指数与银行业板块指数进行DCC-GARCH拟合,并利用两者动态相关系数计算ΔCoVaR值,实证检验近年来房地产业与银行业间的风险溢出。结果表明,房地产“三条红线”新规提出时风险值有明显的下降趋势,即新规对于风险溢出抑制有较为明显的影响。此外,根据实证结果,将风险调控路径分为传统信贷行为路径和行为金融学路径。最后,根据实证结果,为有效防范房地产与银行业风险溢出效应提出政策建议。

    Abstract:

    The risk spillover between the real estate and the banking is empiricly tested through DCC-GARCH fitting of the real estate industry index and the banking industry index from January 4, 2016 to March 19, 2021, and the dynamic correlation coefficient ΔCoVaR value is calculated. The results show that when the new regulation of "three red lines" of real estate is put forward, the risk value has an obvious downward trend, that is, the new regulation has an obvious effect on the risk spillover suppression. In addition, according to the empirical results, the risk regulation path is divided into traditional credit behavior path and behavioral finance path. Finally, according to the empirical results, policy suggestions are put forward to prevent the risk spillover effect of real estate and banking.

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张禹隆,李强.房地产业与银行业间的风险溢出效应研究——基于DCC-GARCH-CoVaR模型[J].科技与产业,2022,22(05):188-191

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-22
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