云南省能源消费与经济增长动态关系——基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究
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The Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Yunnan: An empirical study based on the vector error correction model
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    基于云南1980—2019年时间序列数据,在能源、资本和劳动三要素C-D生产函数框架下,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等定量分析工具,对能源消费与经济增长的短期和长期关系进行实证检验。结果表明:二者存在相互促进的长期均衡关系,而短期不存在因果关系,说明云南经济结构优化向好,能源依赖度低;此外存在纠偏机制,误差修正项对能源消费的调整速度显著快于对实际GDP的调整速度,说明云南能源产业具有良好的自我调节功能。最后指出云南能源产业今后的发展重点是加快建立系统整合的能源-经济决策架构,同时政府应着力营造稳定的宏观经济环境。

    Abstract:

    Based on the time series data of Yunnan from 1980 to 2019, and under the framework of the C-D production function of the three elements of capital, labor and energy, using quantitative analysis tools such as Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test to conduct an empirical study on the short-term and long-term influence and inherent causality between energy consumption and economic growth. The results show that there is a mutually-promoting long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, but there is no causal relationship in the short term, indicating that Yunnan’s economic structure is optimized and its energy dependence is low. In addition, there is a correction mechanism, and the adjustment speed of the error correction item to energy consumption is significantly faster than it to the actual GDP, indicating that Yunnan's energy industry has a good self-regulation function. Finally, it is pointed out that the future development focus of Yunnan's energy industry is to accelerate the establishment of a systematic and integrated energy-economic decision-making structure, and the government should focus on creating a stable macroeconomic environment.

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田文甫慧.云南省能源消费与经济增长动态关系——基于向量误差修正模型的实证研究[J].科技与产业,2022,22(01):295-302

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-27
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