“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资风险分析
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Risk Analysis of Oil and Gas Investment in Countries Along the “Belt and Road”
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    摘要:

    运用基于奇异值分解的多评价结论集结方法,以“一带一路”沿线国家为研究对象,对2000—2020 年各国油气投资风险进行分析。研究结果表明:从国家角度来看,卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋与新加坡的油气投资环境优越,而伊拉克与也门的油气投资风险最高;从空间分布来看, “一带一路”沿线地区油气投资环境较为复杂,主要表现为中东地区油气投资内部风险差异较大,东南亚与南亚地区的油气投资状况较为稳定,内部的油气投资环境差异较小;从风险变动趋势来看,“一带一路”沿线整体油气投资环境变动较大,在研究期内以2008年与2013年为主要时间节点,2008年之前全球油气投资处于上升期,2008—2013年油气产业发展处于停滞状态,2013年后沿线国家的油气投资状况有所好转。

    Abstract:

    By using the methods of singular value decomposition ,the investment risk of oil and gas along the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries from 2000 to 2020 was analyze . The research reveals that: From the perspective of country, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore have favorable oil and gas investment environments, while Iraq and Yemen are the riskiest. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the investment environment of oil and gas is relatively complex along the “Belt and Road Initiative” area, which is mainly manifested as: the risk of oil and gas investment in the Middle East is quite different division into two opposing extremes. The situation of oil and gas investment in Southeast Asia and South Asia is relatively stable, and there is little difference in oil and gas investment environment within the region. From the perspective of risk variation trend, the investment environment of oil and gas changed greatly from 2000 to 2020. During the whole research period, 2008 and 2013 are the main time nodes. Oil and gas investment was on the rise before 2008. However, the development of oil and gas industry was stagnant from 2008 to 2013, and the investment risk of oil and gas began to recover and become better after 2013.

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苑可鑫.“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资风险分析[J].科技与产业,2022,22(01):217-223

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-01-27
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