基于VAR模型的生产性服务业与经济增长动态关系研究
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The Dynamic Study between Producer Services Industry and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model
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    摘要:

    选取1991-2015年中国的年度数据,运用VAR模型分析生产性服务业与经济增长的动态关系,认为我国经济增长与生产性服务业发展之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。脉冲响应分析表明,无论是给予生产性服务业还是经济增长一个正向冲击,短期中都会引起生产性服务业、经济增长一个大的提高,但长期中回落并稳定发展。方差分解表明,长期经济增长是影响自身发展的决定性因素,影响生产性服务业发展的主要因素是经济增长和生产性服务业自身的发展。

    Abstract:

    Using the time-series data of China during the period of 1991-2015, This paper simulates and analyzes the dynamic relationship between economic growth and producer services by VAR model. The result shows that economic growth and the development of producer services exists the long - term stability of the equilibrium relationship. Impulse response curve shows that a positive impact on producer services or economic growth, producer services and economic growth are being promoted in the short time, downed and developed steadily in the long time. Variance decomposition shows that long - term economic growth a significant effect on promoting itself, economic growth and the development of producer services make significant contribution to the development of producer services.

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丁慧.基于VAR模型的生产性服务业与经济增长动态关系研究[J].科技与产业,2018,(08):37-41

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-09-14
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