In the process of oilfield development，oil production is influenced by many factors. On the basis of the practical situation of oil field, the paper establishes prewarning index system of oil field development. Then, using factor analysis method and the control chart method, it analyzes the main factors influencing the changes of production, and draws the oil field development dynamic prewarning control chart. It can guide the oil fields in the development process in a timely manner to adjust scheme, and provide theoretical basis for the stable operation of the oil field and decision support.