Abstract:Semiconductor stock price index shows periodic rule under the influence of industry cycle. Vector autoregressive model was used to analyze the semiconductor cycle and silicon cycle from macro and industry level. The empirical research shows that there is a correlation between the industry cycle and the stock price index cycle. The semiconductor industry cycle is the core influencing factor of the semiconductor stock price index cycle, and the stock price index cycle precedes the industry cycle by 2 to 6 months, which confirms that the stock market plays the function of macroeconomic barometer. Analyzing the internal law of stock price index fluctuation from the perspective of industry cycle has certain reference value for optimizing investors' investment strategy.