China has proposed the Belt and Road Initiative to advocate peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness and mutual learning and mutual benefits, which has greatly facilitated trade cooperation between it and countries along Belt and Road Routes. However, China's trade in tobacco products with those countries has been in deficit for a long time, which is not conducive to its long-term development. So it is imperative to analyze their trade exchanges. Based on import and export data, a constant market share (CMS) model was established to analyze factors affecting fluctuations in export and import volumes respectively. It shows that, China’s less competitive tobacco products, which continue to lose competitiveness, are the biggest constraint on its trade development. Moreover, its dependence on the Belt and Road market has a significant impact on foreign trade. Finally, China’s tobacco products’ portfolio cannot adequately meet domestic and international market demand.