With the rapid increase of carbon emissions，the greenhouse effect continues to strengthen. It is of great significance to study the peak of carbon emissions and the time to reach the peak of carbon emissions. The improved Kaya model and LMDI index decomposition method were used to explore the influencing factors of Fujian's carbon emissions. STIRPAT model was constructed and combined scenario analysis was used to predict the future carbon emissions of Fujian Province. The results show that the total energy consumption of standard coal increased from 40.626 million tons in 2003 to 1 390 519 million tons in 2020， with an average growth rate of 7.99%. Energy consumption intensity factor，economic development factor and population factor have a positive impact on CO2 emission，while energy intensity factor has a negative impact. The impact intensity is successively economic effect， energy intensity effect， population effect and emission intensity. In the scenario model of low-low-medium-low-low，low-low-medium-low-medium，low-low-low-medium-medium，low-low-low-medium-medium-medium，and low-low-low-medium-medium-medium， the peak years are 2040，2025，and 2030，and the peak emissions are 7 300.07 million tons，68.889 4 million tons，and 69.994 7 million tons，respectively. Suggestions on resource utilization，low-carbon industrial system and population scale are put forward to help Fujian reach its carbon peak as soon as possible．