基于神经网络的建筑业碳排放强度预测——以京津冀为例
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Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting the Construction Industry’s Carbon Emission Intensity:Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an example
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    通过统计分析得出影响建筑业碳排放强度的13个影响因素,基于收集的京津冀相关数据,运用逐步回归分析找出其中6个关键因素。借鉴五折交叉验证解决数据稀缺问题,采用神经网络对京津冀建筑业碳排放强度进行预测。利用敏感性分析简化模型,筛选出4个核心因素。结果表明,此模型预测精度高达99%,同时根据挖掘出的核心因素和关键因素,提出建筑业节能减排的建议。

    Abstract:

    Using the statistical analysis, 13 factors that affect the construction’s carbon emission intensity is summarized based on relevant data of three regions including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei were collected. The stepwise regression analysis was used to find the 6 key factors with the 5-Fold Cross-Validation to solve the problem of data shortage. the artificial neural network was used to predict construction’s carbon emission intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to make the model more understandable and then found the 4 most important factors. The results show that an accurate prediction has an accuracy of about 99%. According to the key factors and the most factors, propose suggestions for energy conservation and emission reduction in the construction industry.

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张广泰,彭瑞,倪平安,邓舒文.基于神经网络的建筑业碳排放强度预测——以京津冀为例[J].科技与产业,2021,21(09):15-20

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-09-19