Abstract:In the context of the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and the special drawing rights of the RMB in 2016, China’s import and export trade experienced China’s economic crisis in 2009 and the global economic downturn in 2015, and China’s import and export trade resumed growth in the past two years. Whether the import and export trade has an impact on the RMB exchange rate and the extent of its impact. This paper selects the monthly time series from January 2010 to December 2018 as a data sample, and establishes a VAR model to analyze the impact of China's import and export trade volume on the RMB exchange rate. The empirical results show that the impact of the RMB exchange rate changes is more obvious on China's export trade, while the impact of China's import trade on the RMB exchange rate changes is not obvious.