Abstract:Based on the panel data of China's provinces in 2003-2017. Firstly, the Spatial Fixed Effect Durbin Model was used to study the impact of industrial structure optimization on carbon emissions. The results show that the optimization of industrial structure reduces the province's carbon emission level, but it can be seen that by decomposing the effect of optimization of production structure on carbon emissions, although the province has reduced its carbon emissions through optimization of industrial structure, it has increased the carbon emissions of neighboring provinces. Secondly, the Geographically Weighted Regression Model is used to study the impact of spatial heterogeneity on carbon emissions in industrial structure optimization. Through model regression results, it is found that the direct effects of developed provinces are smaller, while the indirect effects are larger, and the opposite is true for relatively underdeveloped.